Posted by
Jim on Tuesday, February 12, 2008 5:11:04 PM
With the current U.S. Presidential election looming large in the minds of many, (being the historical trivia buff that I am) I immediately attempt to draw connections between those who've previously held the office, with those currently attempting to secure it.
First thing, I want to know is when each of the remaining candidates were born. The reason being that (to date) not a single person has been elected to the Presidency of the United States who was born during the administration of a President who died in office. In other words, not a single Chief Executive of the United States had been born during the administrations of Wm. Harrison, Taylor, Lincoln, Garfield, McKinley, Harding, FDR or JFK. (Yes, I know it's just a coincidence, but self-admitted trivia nuts like myself thrive on such useless information.)
Both John McCain and Barack Obama were born during the administrations of Presidents who died in office (FDR and JFK), so a victory by either candidate would break the otherwise perfect pattern which has held for more than two centuries. Unfortunately, of the three remaining front-runners, that leaves only Hillary Clinton (born during the Truman administration) to maintain the hence unbroken pattern. Unless, of course, Mike Huckabee (born during the Eisenhower administration) stages a miraculous comeback to secure his party's nomination and the White House in November.
On another note, in the past four Presidential contests, only one candidate has secured a majority of the popular vote: G. W. Bush (2004). President Bush had not secured a majority vote in 2000, and President Clinton never garnered a majority of the popular vote (Slick Willy holds the distinction of being one of only three persons to be twice elected to the Presidency with more people having voted against him than for him -- and all three of them were Democrats: Clinton, Wilson, Cleveland).
Overall, when the Republicans win the White House, they average a greater margin of victory in the popular vote than the Democrats when they win. The average Republican margin of victory in the popular vote since WWII has been 9.8% (since the GOP's first Presidential attempt in 1856: 9.9%). Compare that with the average Democratic margin of victory in the popular vote since WWII: 7.0% (since 1856: 8.3%).
Since the birth of the GOP, the Republicans have garnered over 50% of the popular vote in 17 of their 20 popular vote victories (the Republicans have also won three elections where they lost the popular vote, but achieved a majority of the electoral votes: 1876, 1888, 2000). That gives the GOP a 17 and 3 record of winning (or keeping) the White House with a majority vote, compared to the Democrat's sad 6 and 9 record (garnering a majority popular vote in only six of fifteen victories during that same time period).
Democratic Presidents have only acquired a majority of the popular vote a pathetic six times in thirty-eight elections (less than 16% of the time), compared to the Republicans seventeen times (nearly 45% of the time).
Since the end of the 19th century, only seven U.S. Presidents gained a larger margin-of-victory percentage in their re-election than they had in their initial bid for the White House. Five of those seven were Republicans, and only two Democrats. (This statistic obviously cannot be applied to incumbents who entered office without being elected: T. Roosevelt, Coolidge, Truman, Johnson, Ford.)
#1) Richard Nixon (REP)
0.7% margin-of-victory (1968) to 23.2% margin-of-victory (1972) + 22.5%
#2) Ronald Reagan (REP)
9.7% m-o-v (1980) to 18.2% m-o-v (1984) +8.5%
#3) FDR (DEM)
17.8% m-o-v (1932) to 24.3% m-o-v (1936) +6.5%*
* 1st to 2nd term differential
#4) Dwight Eisenhower (REP)
10.7% m-o-v (1952) to 15.4% m-o-v (1956) +4.7%
#5) George W. Bush (REP)
-0.5% (lost popular vote: 2000) to 2.8% m-o-v (2004) +3.3%
#6) Bill Clinton (DEM)
5.6% m-o-v (1992) to 8.5% m-o-v (1996) +2.9%
#7) William McKinley (REP)
4.2% m-o-v (1896) to 6.1% m-o-v (1900) +1.9%
Of the thirteen U.S. Presidents who were twice elected since the birth of the GOP, seven were Republicans and six Democrats. All seven Republicans were re-elected with a greater percentage of the popular vote, while only three Democrats received a greater percentage for their re-election bids. The other three Democratic incumbents won their subsequent terms with a smaller percentage of the popular vote than from their previous bids.
#1) Richard Nixon (REP)
43.4% popular vote (1968) to 60.7% popular vote (1972) +17.3%
#2) Abraham Lincoln (REP)
39.9% popular vote (1860) to 53.1% popular vote (1864) +13.2%*
* Confederacy did not take part in election/first election was a 3-way race
#3) Ronald Reagan (REP)
50.7% popular vote (1980) to 58.8% popular vote (1984) +8.1%
#4) Woodrow Wilson (DEM)
41.6% popular vote (1912) to 49.3% popular vote (1916) +7.7%*
*first election was a 3-way race
#5) Bill Clinton (DEM)
43.0% popular vote (1992) to 49.2% popular vote (1996) +6.2%*
*first election was a 3-way race
#6) FDR (DEM)
57.4% popular vote (1932) to 60.8% popular vote (1936) +3.4%*
* 1st to 2nd term differential
#7) George W. Bush (REP)
47.8% popular vote (2000) to 50.9% popular vote (2004) +3.1%
#8) Ulysses Grant (REP)
52.7% popular vote (1868) to 55.6% popular vote (1872) +2.9%
#9) Dwight Eisenhower (REP)
55.1% popular vote (1952) to 57.4% popular vote (1956) +2.3%
#10) William McKinley (REP)
50.2% popular vote (1896) to 51.6% popular vote (1900) +1.4%
-------
#11) FDR (DEM)
54.7% popular vote (1940) to 53.4% popular vote (1944) -1.3%*
*3rd to 4th term differential
#12) Grover Cleveland (DEM)
48.7% popular vote (1884) to 46.1% popular vote (1892) -2.6%*
*was not incumbent in 1892 election
#13) FDR (DEM)
60.8% popular vote (1936) to 54.7% popular vote (1940) -6.1%*
*2nd to 3rd term differential
In the over 150 years since the birth of the GOP, only three Democrats won (or kept) the Presidency with a majority of the popular vote: FDR (4 times), LBJ and Jimmy Carter (Carter, just barely, edging out Ford with only 50.1% of the popular vote in 1976 -- in spite of Watergate).
In that same time period, thirteen Republicans won (or kept) the Presidency with a majority of the popular vote: Nixon, Harding, Reagan (twice), Hoover, Eisenhower (twice), Theodore Roosevelt, Grant (twice), Coolidge, George H.W. Bush, Lincoln, McKinley (twice), Taft and George W. Bush.
The Republicans won (or kept) the Presidency with a majority of the popular vote seventeen times (w/13 different men), as opposed to the Democrats doing it six times (w/3 different men).
Republicans have only gained (or kept) the White House four times with less than a majority of the popular vote, compared the Democrats ten times in the same period.
As a side note, since the birth of the GOP, nineteen persons have lost U.S. Presidential bids with a greater percentage of the popular vote than Bill Clinton had when he won in 1992 (43.0%) --
Kerry: 48.1% (2004), Gore: 48.3% (2000), Dukakis: 45.6% (1988), Ford: 48.0% (1976), Nxion: 49.5% (1960), Stevenson: 44.4% (1952), Dewey: 45.1% (1948), Dewey: 45.9% (1944), Willkie: 44.8% (1940), Hughes: 46.1% (1916), Bryan: 45.5% (1900), Bryan: 46.0% (1896), Cleveland: 48.7% (1888 - won popular vote, lost electoral vote), Blaine: 48.1 (1884), Hancock: 48.2% (1880), Tilden: 51.0% (1876 - won popular vote, lost electoral vote), Greeley: 43.8% (1872), Seymour: 47.3% (1868), McClellan: 43.3% (1864).
Half of all the Presidential elections held since the birth of the GOP had losers with a greater percentage of the popular vote than Bill Clinton had when he won his first term (19 of 38). And 92.1% of all Presidental victories in that same time period, secured a greater percentage of the popular vote than Bill Clinton had in 1992 (including Bill Clinton in 1996). Since the Civil War, only Woodrow Wilson (1912) won (or kept) the Presidency with a smaller percentage of the popular vote (41.6% Wilson).
Since the birth of the GOP, Republicans have won (or kept) the White house in 23 of 38 elections (60%), compared to the Democrats who have won (or kept) the White House for 15 of 38 elections (39%).
And in considering the times the Democrats won their measly 39% of the elections...
* In 1856, the Democratic candidate (Buchanan) won a 3-way race, where conservative candidates (Fremont: Republican, and Fillmore: Whig) split 54.7% of the popular vote.
* The Democrats wouldn't win the White House again until 1884 (Cleveland), with a paltry 0.6% margin-of-victory, and their first win in seven elections (28 years).
* The next man the Democrats got into the White House (Wilson in 1912), was in another 3-way race where conservatives (again) split the majority of the vote (between incumbent Taft and former President Theodore Roosevelt), giving the Democratic candidate the smallest percentage of the popular vote for the White House over any candidate for a 148-year period which has yet to be broken (1860 to the present).
* Twenty years later, it would take the worse economic depression in U.S. history to unseat a Republican incumbent (Hoover), who was blamed for it.
* In 1960, JFK secured the White House in what even liberal historians now acknowledge as a stolen election, which (even with daddy's help via voter fraud) he barely won with a 0.2% margin-of-victory (second lowest in U.S. history), which candidate Nixon (unlike Al Gore in 2000) chose not to contest.
* In 1976, Carter barely edged incumbent Ford (with a 2.1% margin-of-victory), who (along with most of the Republican party) bore a backlash for the Watergate scandal.
* In 1992 it was yet another 3-way race, coupled with an economic recession and a Democrat who won with the second worst percentage of the popular vote since the Civil War.
Now, try to imagine what it might've been like if the Democrats didn't have the media ever championing their causes and bashing conservatives, and wonder if the Democrats could ever win the White House on their own.
In a fair fight, probably not. But then, politics (like life) isn't fair.
Sometimes we just have to pray for sanity.
Or a miracle...